Jan 26, 2021Why Did So Many Investors Ignore Warnings Before the Crash of 2021?Tesla. Bitcoin. GameStop. The equity market as a whole. Even the bond markets. The list goes on. Why did so many investors ignore the warning signs that were flashing red before the Crash of 2021? And more importantly, what was different about those who did not ignore those warnings? As…Global Macro6 min readGlobal Macro6 min read
Mar 26, 2020The Next Economic Downturn: How Different? How Deep? How Long?I originally published this in August 2019 on The Index Investor. As you can see, the global economy was facing substantial challenges before the COVID-19 Pandemic arrived. Simply returning to the status quo in December 2019 is not sufficient to meet those challenges. — — — — — — —…Forecasting20 min readForecasting20 min read
Mar 26, 2020Wuhan Novel Coronavirus: Critical Uncertainties as of 20Feb20Reprinted from The Index Investor Blog Since the end of December, we have seen an expanding outbreak of a new variant of the coronavirus in China, spreading from its epicenter in Wuhan. There are two critical uncertainties to resolve with more evidence: (1) the transmissibility of the Wuhan strain, which…Coronavirus3 min readCoronavirus3 min read
Mar 26, 2020Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and BeyondI wrote this in the December, 2019 issue of The Index Investor As I learned during the four years I spent as part of the Good Judgment Project, forecasting the behavior of complex adaptive systems like the global political economy and financial markets is actually not, as it often seems…Forecasting10 min readForecasting10 min read
Sep 4, 2019The Evolving Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Risk Management and GovernanceBritten Coyne Partners provides consulting and educational services that enable clients to substantially improve their ability to anticipate, accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging threats to the success of their strategies and survival of their organizations. Among the trends we obsessively monitor is progress in artificial intelligence technologies…Artificial Intelligence11 min readArtificial Intelligence11 min read
Sep 4, 2019The Critical Importance of Anticipatory Intelligence in Our Complex, Uncertain WorldThe deceptive economic and geopolitical calm of the past decade has been an aberration, brought about by unprecedented global monetary stimulus to hold at bay the deflationary forces that have been building in the global economy. Thanks to central bankers’ efforts, volatility has remained low, and organizations have not had…Risk Management6 min readRisk Management6 min read
Dec 21, 2018Anticipating Threats in Our Complex, Uncertain WorldPilots and air traffic controllers use a term — “having the bubble” — to describe having a clear sense of how a complex dynamic situation is evolving in real time, which enables a sense of control and confidence in the decisions they make. Do you need an intellectually stimulating holiday…Investing6 min readInvesting6 min read
